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Republicans May Be Doomed In Michigan Because Of Trump’s Canada Trade War

Canada is Michigan’s biggest export market. Michigan is also a state with key Senate and House races. Trump’s trade war with Canada is so bad for Michigan that it could doom Republicans.

Sarah Jones & Jason Easley's avatar
Sarah Jones & Jason Easley
Aug 27, 2026
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Democrats only need to pick up three seats to take back control of the House of Representatives, and thanks to Donald Trump, they could win all three in Michigan. The Senate contest features Mike Rogers, the former Republican congressman going up against Democrat and former top state health official Abdul El-Sayed is the top contest in Michigan.

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Republicans had high hopes that they could make the election about El-Sayed instead of Trump and the economy. Michigan Republicans started to convince themselves that they might be able to use El-Sayed to hurt Democrats up and down the ballot.

All those hopes turned to dust when Trump slapped a 50% tariff on Canada, and Canadians responded with retaliatory tariffs. Canada's retaliation happens to target agricultural states like Iowa and North Carolina, which also have key Senate races. Border states like Maine and Michigan will be heavily and directly impacted.

However, no state will be as directly impacted by Trump’s Canada trade war as Michigan, and this reality has fallen into Democratic laps and may erase any other issue Republicans hoped could carry them to victory.

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