While the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a crime that deserves attention and public pressure, Democrats have Trump on the ropes on the economy and can't let up.
You have an argument with receipts. However I respectfully disagree. The Democrats do need to talk economy but not exclusively or even primarily. The economy will tell its own story. Aided by the disgust and horror of conservative economists.
The human rights story of very dubious individuals representing themselves as ICE agents taking people off the streets, including lawful residents and American citizens, is the story of the bedrock of our nation. It actually seems to be spurring a change in momentum for democracy.
The New Republic’s Alex Shepard disagrees with you, pointing out how Trump’s disregard of the order to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return and the circumstances behind it are hurting him:
“For one thing, outrage over Garcia’s case has been growing for weeks and is being felt across the country—as Grassley’s disastrous town hall testifies. For another, polling suggests that this outrage is helping to destroy the one policy that Trump is still polling well in: immigration.
Even polls that show voters broadly favoring Trump’s approach to immigration show that the public is furious about his handling of cases like Garcia’s. Fifty-six percent of respondents to a late March Reuters/Ipsos poll said that the administration should not “keep deporting people despite a court order to stop,” with only 40 percent agreeing it should keep doing so. Nearly every poll tracking the administration’s refusal to obey with court orders stopping deportation shows something similar: Voters really do not like it when Trump ignores court orders. And the issue is bringing down overall support for his approach to immigration.
This isn’t a trap, in other words. If anything, it’s the opposite of a trap. For months, the Democrats have agonized over how to respond to Trump’s immigration policy. By refusing to obey court orders—including one from the Supreme Court—the Trump administration has handed them an opportunity on a silver platter. It’s a story that captures everything awful about the Trump administration: its lawlessness, its incompetence, its disregard for basic humanity. Speaking up for Garcia would be the right thing to do even if it wasn’t good politics. Thankfully for Democrats, it is.”
You can point out the harm of Trump’s economic policies AND his disregard for the rule of law, what you’re arguing is equivalent to ignoring a key stepping stone for authoritarianism to focus on just the economy.
It is, in fact, possible to do two things at once. and smacking the motherfuckers on human rights has so far motivated many Republicans, as shown in videos of GOP town halls. And economics is hitting everyone. It's a two-fer.
Rule of law, constitutional rights, racism, abuse...these things are happening now, in front of everyone. People are being illegally taken. This must top the list! Grocery prices, tarrifs, economic impacts..many of these results we won't see for a while. And the impacts don't imprison people, take away civil liberties. Yes! Democrats CAN walk and chew gum. Its not that damn hard.
I think we as citizens can understand more than one topic. He needs to be held accountable for all of it. In politics it seems reasonable to focus on a few issues for messaging. The current environment is not political. It is a catastrophic assault on the country from several directions. In battle, when your enemy is surrounding you, you don’t argue which side to fight back, you fight them all. What you don’t do is fight with each other! It is ALL important. We need more people out there everyday with these messages.
Actually, most Americans really don't like the idea of the US adopting extra-judicial activities such as lawless abductions of people, and sending them to hell-holes operating under foriegn dictators.
‘a crime that deserve attention but doesn’t work with voters’ … omfg, you can’t be serious? you barely give a nod to the greatest threat to our democracy yet from Trump, the threat that anyone, noncitizen or citizen (yeah, this case has inspired Trump to enthusiastically call for that!), can be grabbed and put on a plane to be disappeared into a foreign gulag (never to return - never!), because.l. wait for it… it *supposedly* won’t go over well with voters? aside from the fact that most voters now disapprove of Trump’s deportation frenzy, this is irrelevant for what Democrats, let along progressives, can and must say and do in response to such horrors — how about doing the RIGHT thing, rather than listening to the consultant class and pollsters (again, public opinion is something you can shape, influence, even inspire, rather than simply follow)
Sadly, I think you're correct. But Democrats should also be trying to wear down the Republicans to get enough votes for impeachment ASAP. We will have martial law declared long before the midterms. Then we will be truly fucked.
If there is one thing that the Democratic Congress should have learned from the Republicans is to be organized. That is how Republicans were able to put their Project 2025 together in minute detail & being able to carry out this craziness. But the Dems still don’t get it. They want to continue to operate status quo, and that is not the way they are going to be able to win. They need to get both House and Senate organized and all on the same page focusing on the same things in order to counter all the disparities that are happening right now in this Congress and with Trump‘s cabinet. They need to immediately start on their own project 2026 in order to take over control of the Senate and the House.
Yes to this. MAGA is intentionally flooding the media with too many acts of evil. It’s Trump’s adoption of a Nazi blitzkrieg style, though no one in the media will actually say it. The purpose of this blitzkrieg is to appease and confuse their MAGA world into submission.
These MAGA people are haters; first and foremost. We must remind them of what happened to their 401k’s. No one enjoys losing their hard earned retirement money. They hate that too.
That last paragraph of this writing nails how this whole issue must be framed. The autocratic push we r seeing shows us clearly that at the heart of this administration is no heart or sensibility toward the American people or actually people on general. So yes if Dems want to take back Congress the issue must be framed around the economic disaster this admin is causing people to suffer through. As the last paragraph states, if u want to include the cruelty toward Mr Abrego Garcia frame it through the total lack of compassion the same lack of compassion evidenced by the economic ruin.
Yes, rule of law but with an emotional personal story attached. No matter the topic, an emotional story included because people feel before they think. It’s what the Rs do ALL the time.
The dems need to pick four of trumps biggest corrupt actions, and then a portion of dems should choose one as a primary and three in their pocket to beat on... Another portion choose a different primary issue of the four, the other three their secondary ammo. Next portion choose the third issue for their primary go to, and the other three left as their secondary, when appropriate. The fourth portion the same.... The primary issue should be a large concern in their perspective states. Atleast it's a plan and it spreads the message. Primary issues like Ukraine, economy (prices/stocks), trumps controlling of lawyers and scholastic institutions, no due process for jailed immigrants or Americans, trumps lies and tyrannical behavior etc...
Expanding on your idea, the messages should be targeted to local constituancies. Sanders and AOC are doing well in their appearances. Cory Booker doing well on national stage. Aplan like a pyramid.
Why aren’t Democrats, or everyone else for that matter, talking about this. We should be welcoming them with temporary work permits if they pass a background check.
Below, I’ll provide a concise, balanced analysis of the economic contributions of undocumented workers versus the costs of public services they may use, drawing on the provided web and X post data, while critically examining the sources for bias and gaps. I’ll focus on key metrics like tax contributions, GDP impact, and labor market roles, contrasted with costs such as education, healthcare, and welfare. All monetary figures are in USD and primarily reflect 2022–2023 data from the sources.
Contributions of Undocumented Workers
1. Tax Contributions:
• Total Taxes: Undocumented immigrants paid approximately $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022, including $59.4 billion to the federal government and $37.3 billion to state and local governments. This breaks down to roughly $9,000 per person.
• Federal Taxes: Includes $25.7 billion to Social Security, $6.4 billion to Medicare, and $1.8 billion to unemployment insurance, despite ineligibility for most of these benefits.
• State and Local Taxes: Comprises $15.1 billion in sales/excise taxes, $10.4 billion in property taxes (directly or via rent), and $7 billion in income/business taxes. Six states (CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, NJ) each collected over $1 billion.
• Tax Rates: In 40 states, undocumented immigrants paid higher state and local tax rates than the top 1% of households, with Florida’s rate at 8% for undocumented workers versus 2.7% for the wealthiest.
• Potential Increase: Granting work authorization could boost tax contributions by $40.2 billion annually (to $136.9 billion), due to higher wages (6–15% increase) and better tax compliance.
2. Labor Market and Economic Impact:
• Workforce Participation: Undocumented workers comprised ~4.9% of the U.S. workforce in 2023 (7.6–8 million workers), with 89.4% of working age. They fill critical roles in agriculture (18% of workers), construction (13%), and hospitality (10%).
• GDP Contribution: Estimates suggest undocumented workers contribute $200–$600 billion annually to U.S. GDP, including $290 billion in household income and $254.8 billion in spending power in 2022.
• Job Creation: Nearly 10% of working-age undocumented immigrants are entrepreneurs, with higher entrepreneurship rates than legal residents in over 20 states, creating jobs and stimulating local economies.
• Sector-Specific Impact: They account for 50% of hired field/crop workers, ensuring agricultural viability, and 19% of maintenance workers, often in low-wage, hazardous jobs.
3. Social Security and Medicare:
• Undocumented workers contributed $13–$25.7 billion to Social Security and $3–$6.4 billion to Medicare annually (2016–2022 estimates), generating surpluses (e.g., $35.1 billion for Medicare from 2000–2011) since they rarely access these benefits.
• This supports program solvency, benefiting U.S. citizens, though some argue it exploits vulnerable workers.
Costs of Support for Undocumented Workers
1. Education:
• K-12 Education: Undocumented children (often U.S.-born citizens) and undocumented students (per Plyler v. Doe) access public schools. Costs vary by state; for example, Oklahoma’s education costs for children of undocumented workers are estimated at ~$27.5 million less than their $227.5 million tax contributions.
• Critique: Some studies (e.g., FAIR) claim education is a major cost driver, estimating $66.4 billion in federal expenditures for illegal immigration, including education. However, these figures often include U.S.-citizen children and lack granular cost attribution.
2. Healthcare:
• Emergency Services: Undocumented immigrants are ineligible for most federal healthcare (Medicaid, Medicare, ACA subsidies) but can access emergency care under EMTALA. In 2016, state spending on emergency Medicaid for undocumented individuals ranged from $0 (18 states) to $174 million (CA), representing just 0.6% of CA’s Medicaid budget.
• Total Health Expenditures: Undocumented immigrants consume a small fraction of healthcare spending due to limited access, contributing more in taxes than they use in services.
• FAIR Estimate: Claims $66.4 billion in federal healthcare costs for illegal immigration, but this includes broad assumptions and may inflate costs by not isolating undocumented-specific expenses.
3. Welfare and Public Benefits:
• Ineligibility: Undocumented immigrants are barred from most federal benefits (SNAP, Medicaid, SSI, TANF) and state programs, except for emergency services, WIC, and Head Start.
• Limited Costs: Their use of benefits is minimal, with legal immigrants also using programs like SNAP at lower rates than U.S.-born citizens (25.4% vs. 32.5% in 2013).
• FAIR’s Claim: Estimates $182 billion in annual costs for services to illegal aliens, offset by $31 billion in taxes, yielding a $150.7 billion net cost. This figure is criticized for overestimating costs (e.g., including citizen children) and underestimating taxes.
4. Other Costs:
• Law Enforcement and Deportation: FAIR attributes significant costs to immigration enforcement, but these are policy-driven rather than direct costs of undocumented workers’ presence.
• Economic Ripple Effects: Deportation could reduce tax revenue and local business profits (e.g., fewer customers), potentially offsetting enforcement savings.
Comparative Analysis
• Net Economic Impact:
• Contributions Outweigh Costs: A 2023 CATO study found undocumented immigrants contribute $16,207 per capita to the economy while costing $11,361 in services, yielding a net positive. Similarly, their $96.7 billion in taxes far exceeds documented healthcare/education costs (e.g., $174 million in CA’s emergency Medicaid).
• FAIR’s Counterpoint: Claims a $150.7 billion net cost, but this relies on high cost estimates and low tax assumptions, criticized for methodological flaws (e.g., not accounting for economic multipliers or citizen children’s contributions).
• Long-Term Gains: Educated children of undocumented workers become net contributors, repaying early education costs through lifetime taxes.
• Labor Market Dynamics:
• Undocumented workers fill labor shortages (e.g., 8.1 million job openings vs. 6.8 million unemployed in 2022), preventing economic slowdowns and inflation.
• They earn 42% less than similar documented workers, reducing labor costs but raising ethical concerns about exploitation. Legalization could narrow this gap by 14–24%, boosting wages and taxes.
• Policy Implications:
• Legalization Benefits: A path to citizenship could add $1.2 trillion to the economy and $184 billion in taxes over 10 years, per economists.
• Deportation Costs: Mass deportation would reduce tax revenue, disrupt industries, and lower GDP by removing 5% of the workforce, with ripple effects on local economies.
Critical Examination
• Source Bias:
• Pro-Immigrant Sources (ITEP, American Immigration Council): Emphasize tax contributions and economic benefits, potentially understating costs like education or local service strains. Their $96.7 billion tax figure is robust but doesn’t fully quantify indirect costs.
• Anti-Immigrant Source (FAIR): Inflates costs ($182 billion) by including citizen children and broad enforcement expenses, while lowballing taxes ($31 billion vs. ITEP’s $96.7 billion). Its $150.7 billion net cost lacks transparency in methodology.
• X Posts: Reflect polarized sentiments, with some echoing ITEP’s data ($96.7 billion) and others ignoring contributions. These are not primary evidence but show public debate.
• Data Gaps:
• Cost Specificity: Exact costs for undocumented-specific services (vs. citizen children or legal immigrants) are hard to isolate, leading to overestimates (FAIR) or underestimates (ITEP).
• Economic Multipliers: Neither side fully quantifies undocumented workers’ indirect economic benefits (e.g., job creation via spending) or costs (e.g., wage suppression in low-skill sectors).
• Regional Variation: Costs and contributions vary widely (e.g., CA’s $8.5 billion in taxes vs. smaller states), complicating national estimates.
• Ethical Considerations:
• Undocumented workers’ contributions to Social Security/Medicare without benefits raise fairness concerns, as they subsidize programs for citizens.
• Their concentration in hazardous, low-wage jobs (e.g., 19% of maintenance workers) suggests exploitation, which legalization could address.
Conclusion
Undocumented workers contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, with $96.7 billion in taxes, $200–$600 billion in GDP, and critical labor in agriculture, construction, and hospitality. These outweigh direct costs (e.g., $174 million in CA’s emergency healthcare, minor education expenses), with a net positive per capita impact ($16,207 vs. $11,361). However, critics like FAIR argue a $150.7 billion net cost, though their estimates are inflated and less credible. Legalization could amplify contributions by $40.2 billion annually, while deportation risks economic disruption. Costs are real but often overstated, and long-term benefits (e.g., educated children) tilt the balance toward a net positive.
If you’re seeking data for a specific region, industry, or policy scenario (e.g., legalization impacts), or if you meant a different context (e.g., Lyon, France), let me know, and I’ll refine the analysis. I can also dig deeper into real-time X sentiment or additional sources for nuance.
Rule of law as an argument against Trump is a loser. He disregards the law, pardons offenders, is unaccountable himself thanks to the bought and paid for SCOTUS. The Republicans and many democrats in congress and the senate are punes, not man enough to get in trumps face call him the liar he is. Take a swing if they are in the same room. Call him the lying piece of crap he is, on Camera over and over. Baring that the Price of eggs is the only tool the democrats have.
You have an argument with receipts. However I respectfully disagree. The Democrats do need to talk economy but not exclusively or even primarily. The economy will tell its own story. Aided by the disgust and horror of conservative economists.
The human rights story of very dubious individuals representing themselves as ICE agents taking people off the streets, including lawful residents and American citizens, is the story of the bedrock of our nation. It actually seems to be spurring a change in momentum for democracy.
The New Republic’s Alex Shepard disagrees with you, pointing out how Trump’s disregard of the order to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return and the circumstances behind it are hurting him:
https://newrepublic.com/article/194127/kilmar-abrego-garcia-democrats-trump-immigrants
“For one thing, outrage over Garcia’s case has been growing for weeks and is being felt across the country—as Grassley’s disastrous town hall testifies. For another, polling suggests that this outrage is helping to destroy the one policy that Trump is still polling well in: immigration.
Even polls that show voters broadly favoring Trump’s approach to immigration show that the public is furious about his handling of cases like Garcia’s. Fifty-six percent of respondents to a late March Reuters/Ipsos poll said that the administration should not “keep deporting people despite a court order to stop,” with only 40 percent agreeing it should keep doing so. Nearly every poll tracking the administration’s refusal to obey with court orders stopping deportation shows something similar: Voters really do not like it when Trump ignores court orders. And the issue is bringing down overall support for his approach to immigration.
This isn’t a trap, in other words. If anything, it’s the opposite of a trap. For months, the Democrats have agonized over how to respond to Trump’s immigration policy. By refusing to obey court orders—including one from the Supreme Court—the Trump administration has handed them an opportunity on a silver platter. It’s a story that captures everything awful about the Trump administration: its lawlessness, its incompetence, its disregard for basic humanity. Speaking up for Garcia would be the right thing to do even if it wasn’t good politics. Thankfully for Democrats, it is.”
You can point out the harm of Trump’s economic policies AND his disregard for the rule of law, what you’re arguing is equivalent to ignoring a key stepping stone for authoritarianism to focus on just the economy.
Trump doesn’t care about other people. The tariffs and the lack of due process are both caused by his lack of morality and empathy.
Most Republicans and right leaning independents show Trump’s indifference to rule of law and due process.
But not all.
It is, in fact, possible to do two things at once. and smacking the motherfuckers on human rights has so far motivated many Republicans, as shown in videos of GOP town halls. And economics is hitting everyone. It's a two-fer.
Rule of law, constitutional rights, racism, abuse...these things are happening now, in front of everyone. People are being illegally taken. This must top the list! Grocery prices, tarrifs, economic impacts..many of these results we won't see for a while. And the impacts don't imprison people, take away civil liberties. Yes! Democrats CAN walk and chew gum. Its not that damn hard.
Left jab and right hook.
I think we as citizens can understand more than one topic. He needs to be held accountable for all of it. In politics it seems reasonable to focus on a few issues for messaging. The current environment is not political. It is a catastrophic assault on the country from several directions. In battle, when your enemy is surrounding you, you don’t argue which side to fight back, you fight them all. What you don’t do is fight with each other! It is ALL important. We need more people out there everyday with these messages.
Exactly.
Actually, most Americans really don't like the idea of the US adopting extra-judicial activities such as lawless abductions of people, and sending them to hell-holes operating under foriegn dictators.
The economy is a BFD, but, c'mon.
‘a crime that deserve attention but doesn’t work with voters’ … omfg, you can’t be serious? you barely give a nod to the greatest threat to our democracy yet from Trump, the threat that anyone, noncitizen or citizen (yeah, this case has inspired Trump to enthusiastically call for that!), can be grabbed and put on a plane to be disappeared into a foreign gulag (never to return - never!), because.l. wait for it… it *supposedly* won’t go over well with voters? aside from the fact that most voters now disapprove of Trump’s deportation frenzy, this is irrelevant for what Democrats, let along progressives, can and must say and do in response to such horrors — how about doing the RIGHT thing, rather than listening to the consultant class and pollsters (again, public opinion is something you can shape, influence, even inspire, rather than simply follow)
Prrrreach!!!
Sadly, I think you're correct. But Democrats should also be trying to wear down the Republicans to get enough votes for impeachment ASAP. We will have martial law declared long before the midterms. Then we will be truly fucked.
Do not relent on all Republicans. Every day. Every place.
We can do that as well. I wrote to several republican members that I am not their constituency. Doesn't hurt to push.
If there is one thing that the Democratic Congress should have learned from the Republicans is to be organized. That is how Republicans were able to put their Project 2025 together in minute detail & being able to carry out this craziness. But the Dems still don’t get it. They want to continue to operate status quo, and that is not the way they are going to be able to win. They need to get both House and Senate organized and all on the same page focusing on the same things in order to counter all the disparities that are happening right now in this Congress and with Trump‘s cabinet. They need to immediately start on their own project 2026 in order to take over control of the Senate and the House.
Yes to this. MAGA is intentionally flooding the media with too many acts of evil. It’s Trump’s adoption of a Nazi blitzkrieg style, though no one in the media will actually say it. The purpose of this blitzkrieg is to appease and confuse their MAGA world into submission.
These MAGA people are haters; first and foremost. We must remind them of what happened to their 401k’s. No one enjoys losing their hard earned retirement money. They hate that too.
That last paragraph of this writing nails how this whole issue must be framed. The autocratic push we r seeing shows us clearly that at the heart of this administration is no heart or sensibility toward the American people or actually people on general. So yes if Dems want to take back Congress the issue must be framed around the economic disaster this admin is causing people to suffer through. As the last paragraph states, if u want to include the cruelty toward Mr Abrego Garcia frame it through the total lack of compassion the same lack of compassion evidenced by the economic ruin.
Yes, rule of law but with an emotional personal story attached. No matter the topic, an emotional story included because people feel before they think. It’s what the Rs do ALL the time.
The dems need to pick four of trumps biggest corrupt actions, and then a portion of dems should choose one as a primary and three in their pocket to beat on... Another portion choose a different primary issue of the four, the other three their secondary ammo. Next portion choose the third issue for their primary go to, and the other three left as their secondary, when appropriate. The fourth portion the same.... The primary issue should be a large concern in their perspective states. Atleast it's a plan and it spreads the message. Primary issues like Ukraine, economy (prices/stocks), trumps controlling of lawyers and scholastic institutions, no due process for jailed immigrants or Americans, trumps lies and tyrannical behavior etc...
Expanding on your idea, the messages should be targeted to local constituancies. Sanders and AOC are doing well in their appearances. Cory Booker doing well on national stage. Aplan like a pyramid.
Futher thought, think of politics like the nervous and curculatory systems of the body.
I actually included that...
Why aren’t Democrats, or everyone else for that matter, talking about this. We should be welcoming them with temporary work permits if they pass a background check.
Below, I’ll provide a concise, balanced analysis of the economic contributions of undocumented workers versus the costs of public services they may use, drawing on the provided web and X post data, while critically examining the sources for bias and gaps. I’ll focus on key metrics like tax contributions, GDP impact, and labor market roles, contrasted with costs such as education, healthcare, and welfare. All monetary figures are in USD and primarily reflect 2022–2023 data from the sources.
Contributions of Undocumented Workers
1. Tax Contributions:
• Total Taxes: Undocumented immigrants paid approximately $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022, including $59.4 billion to the federal government and $37.3 billion to state and local governments. This breaks down to roughly $9,000 per person.
• Federal Taxes: Includes $25.7 billion to Social Security, $6.4 billion to Medicare, and $1.8 billion to unemployment insurance, despite ineligibility for most of these benefits.
• State and Local Taxes: Comprises $15.1 billion in sales/excise taxes, $10.4 billion in property taxes (directly or via rent), and $7 billion in income/business taxes. Six states (CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, NJ) each collected over $1 billion.
• Tax Rates: In 40 states, undocumented immigrants paid higher state and local tax rates than the top 1% of households, with Florida’s rate at 8% for undocumented workers versus 2.7% for the wealthiest.
• Potential Increase: Granting work authorization could boost tax contributions by $40.2 billion annually (to $136.9 billion), due to higher wages (6–15% increase) and better tax compliance.
2. Labor Market and Economic Impact:
• Workforce Participation: Undocumented workers comprised ~4.9% of the U.S. workforce in 2023 (7.6–8 million workers), with 89.4% of working age. They fill critical roles in agriculture (18% of workers), construction (13%), and hospitality (10%).
• GDP Contribution: Estimates suggest undocumented workers contribute $200–$600 billion annually to U.S. GDP, including $290 billion in household income and $254.8 billion in spending power in 2022.
• Job Creation: Nearly 10% of working-age undocumented immigrants are entrepreneurs, with higher entrepreneurship rates than legal residents in over 20 states, creating jobs and stimulating local economies.
• Sector-Specific Impact: They account for 50% of hired field/crop workers, ensuring agricultural viability, and 19% of maintenance workers, often in low-wage, hazardous jobs.
3. Social Security and Medicare:
• Undocumented workers contributed $13–$25.7 billion to Social Security and $3–$6.4 billion to Medicare annually (2016–2022 estimates), generating surpluses (e.g., $35.1 billion for Medicare from 2000–2011) since they rarely access these benefits.
• This supports program solvency, benefiting U.S. citizens, though some argue it exploits vulnerable workers.
Costs of Support for Undocumented Workers
1. Education:
• K-12 Education: Undocumented children (often U.S.-born citizens) and undocumented students (per Plyler v. Doe) access public schools. Costs vary by state; for example, Oklahoma’s education costs for children of undocumented workers are estimated at ~$27.5 million less than their $227.5 million tax contributions.
• Critique: Some studies (e.g., FAIR) claim education is a major cost driver, estimating $66.4 billion in federal expenditures for illegal immigration, including education. However, these figures often include U.S.-citizen children and lack granular cost attribution.
2. Healthcare:
• Emergency Services: Undocumented immigrants are ineligible for most federal healthcare (Medicaid, Medicare, ACA subsidies) but can access emergency care under EMTALA. In 2016, state spending on emergency Medicaid for undocumented individuals ranged from $0 (18 states) to $174 million (CA), representing just 0.6% of CA’s Medicaid budget.
• Total Health Expenditures: Undocumented immigrants consume a small fraction of healthcare spending due to limited access, contributing more in taxes than they use in services.
• FAIR Estimate: Claims $66.4 billion in federal healthcare costs for illegal immigration, but this includes broad assumptions and may inflate costs by not isolating undocumented-specific expenses.
3. Welfare and Public Benefits:
• Ineligibility: Undocumented immigrants are barred from most federal benefits (SNAP, Medicaid, SSI, TANF) and state programs, except for emergency services, WIC, and Head Start.
• Limited Costs: Their use of benefits is minimal, with legal immigrants also using programs like SNAP at lower rates than U.S.-born citizens (25.4% vs. 32.5% in 2013).
• FAIR’s Claim: Estimates $182 billion in annual costs for services to illegal aliens, offset by $31 billion in taxes, yielding a $150.7 billion net cost. This figure is criticized for overestimating costs (e.g., including citizen children) and underestimating taxes.
4. Other Costs:
• Law Enforcement and Deportation: FAIR attributes significant costs to immigration enforcement, but these are policy-driven rather than direct costs of undocumented workers’ presence.
• Economic Ripple Effects: Deportation could reduce tax revenue and local business profits (e.g., fewer customers), potentially offsetting enforcement savings.
Comparative Analysis
• Net Economic Impact:
• Contributions Outweigh Costs: A 2023 CATO study found undocumented immigrants contribute $16,207 per capita to the economy while costing $11,361 in services, yielding a net positive. Similarly, their $96.7 billion in taxes far exceeds documented healthcare/education costs (e.g., $174 million in CA’s emergency Medicaid).
• FAIR’s Counterpoint: Claims a $150.7 billion net cost, but this relies on high cost estimates and low tax assumptions, criticized for methodological flaws (e.g., not accounting for economic multipliers or citizen children’s contributions).
• Long-Term Gains: Educated children of undocumented workers become net contributors, repaying early education costs through lifetime taxes.
• Labor Market Dynamics:
• Undocumented workers fill labor shortages (e.g., 8.1 million job openings vs. 6.8 million unemployed in 2022), preventing economic slowdowns and inflation.
• They earn 42% less than similar documented workers, reducing labor costs but raising ethical concerns about exploitation. Legalization could narrow this gap by 14–24%, boosting wages and taxes.
• Policy Implications:
• Legalization Benefits: A path to citizenship could add $1.2 trillion to the economy and $184 billion in taxes over 10 years, per economists.
• Deportation Costs: Mass deportation would reduce tax revenue, disrupt industries, and lower GDP by removing 5% of the workforce, with ripple effects on local economies.
Critical Examination
• Source Bias:
• Pro-Immigrant Sources (ITEP, American Immigration Council): Emphasize tax contributions and economic benefits, potentially understating costs like education or local service strains. Their $96.7 billion tax figure is robust but doesn’t fully quantify indirect costs.
• Anti-Immigrant Source (FAIR): Inflates costs ($182 billion) by including citizen children and broad enforcement expenses, while lowballing taxes ($31 billion vs. ITEP’s $96.7 billion). Its $150.7 billion net cost lacks transparency in methodology.
• X Posts: Reflect polarized sentiments, with some echoing ITEP’s data ($96.7 billion) and others ignoring contributions. These are not primary evidence but show public debate.
• Data Gaps:
• Cost Specificity: Exact costs for undocumented-specific services (vs. citizen children or legal immigrants) are hard to isolate, leading to overestimates (FAIR) or underestimates (ITEP).
• Economic Multipliers: Neither side fully quantifies undocumented workers’ indirect economic benefits (e.g., job creation via spending) or costs (e.g., wage suppression in low-skill sectors).
• Regional Variation: Costs and contributions vary widely (e.g., CA’s $8.5 billion in taxes vs. smaller states), complicating national estimates.
• Ethical Considerations:
• Undocumented workers’ contributions to Social Security/Medicare without benefits raise fairness concerns, as they subsidize programs for citizens.
• Their concentration in hazardous, low-wage jobs (e.g., 19% of maintenance workers) suggests exploitation, which legalization could address.
Conclusion
Undocumented workers contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, with $96.7 billion in taxes, $200–$600 billion in GDP, and critical labor in agriculture, construction, and hospitality. These outweigh direct costs (e.g., $174 million in CA’s emergency healthcare, minor education expenses), with a net positive per capita impact ($16,207 vs. $11,361). However, critics like FAIR argue a $150.7 billion net cost, though their estimates are inflated and less credible. Legalization could amplify contributions by $40.2 billion annually, while deportation risks economic disruption. Costs are real but often overstated, and long-term benefits (e.g., educated children) tilt the balance toward a net positive.
If you’re seeking data for a specific region, industry, or policy scenario (e.g., legalization impacts), or if you meant a different context (e.g., Lyon, France), let me know, and I’ll refine the analysis. I can also dig deeper into real-time X sentiment or additional sources for nuance.
Rule of law as an argument against Trump is a loser. He disregards the law, pardons offenders, is unaccountable himself thanks to the bought and paid for SCOTUS. The Republicans and many democrats in congress and the senate are punes, not man enough to get in trumps face call him the liar he is. Take a swing if they are in the same room. Call him the lying piece of crap he is, on Camera over and over. Baring that the Price of eggs is the only tool the democrats have.