Why Kamala Harris Support Is Probably Larger Than The Polls Show

Polling is not a real time measurement, and given the trajectory of the last three weeks, support for Kamala Harris is likely larger than the polls show,

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Polls Show Kamala Harris With The Lead

We've discussed polling from time to time, mostly the challenges associated with modern polling. One point that I have tried to make is that as we approach election day, polling will improve and become more accurate. This is why the media making a big deal out of polls a year or six months before people start voting is so absurd.

Now that we are less than three months away from election day, some consensus is forming in the polls. As a reminder, state-level polling has some variabilities and inconsistencies. Polling today might be better than months ago, but all the same challenges exist, so take it with a grain of salt.

The one big consistency across all polls is voter movement toward Kamala Harris. A wave of battleground state polls shows Harris leading Trump in critical states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

A poll that is getting a lot of buzz today came from the Cook Political Report that found:

It is not so much the new numbers that matter but how Harris has taken the lead:

Harris’ success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters.

In May, in the five-way horserace including third party candidates, just 82% of the voters who supported Biden in 2020 were committed to voting for him this fall. Harris is getting 91% of those voters. Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump 48% to 40% in the 2-way head-to-head. In May, Trump led Biden among independent voters by three points (41% to 38%).

…

In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been.

She is the sitting incumbent, yet 56% of battleground state voters say she represents a chance to “turn the page of the Trump/Biden era,” and 59% see her as representing a “new generation of leadership.” She may serve as Biden’s vice president, but she’s winning Biden-Trump “double haters” by 30 points (54% to 24%) in the head-to-head. Harris’ ability to quickly and decisively win over those double haters is a reminder that the 2020 Biden coalition was more anti-Trump than pro-Biden.

These numbers all look good for VP Harris, but they also highlight one of the main problems and reasons to suspect that the polling is not accurately reflecting Harris's true level of support: the data in the polls is not current.