Trump's Polling Lead Is A Mirage

Some deeper analysis of polling data shows that Trump's polling is based on responses from people who are not likely to vote.

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We’re Starting To Get Some Answers On Trump’s Polling Lead

It is a question that has caused many Americans and polling experts to raise an eyebrow. Donald Trump has been leading President Biden in the polls for months on and off, and these results seem to contrast with facts that are known about Trump. He left office as the only president in history to never have a 50% approval rating. Trump has done nothing in the years since to broaden his support, and the ex-president is a defendant in four different criminal cases.

How can Trump be leading or so close in the polls?

The obvious answer, in part, is polarization.

The Republican Party could nominate Trump’s personal hero, Hannibal Lecter, and still get 45%- 47% of the popular vote.

Polarization doesn’t explain everything.

The suspected cause has not been the polls themselves but who is responding to them. For the last eight years or more, pollsters have been struggling to get younger, less white, and non-male voters to respond to polling questions. If those voters are being underrepresented, that answers one part of the question. The other half of the question is who is responding to these polls.

We’re starting to get some answers, and what is emerging is not good for Trump.

Nate Cohn of The New York Times recently wrote:

The polls have shown Donald J. Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s one big flashing warning sign suggesting that his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks.

That warning sign: His narrow lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.

If the people who are responding to polls are those who don’t pay attention to politics and don’t usually vote, that explains a lot about the numbers.

There has long been an expectation within politics that once voters start engaging with the election, Trump’s lead would evaporate. That expectation is boosted by the fact that Biden leads in polling with voters who voted in 2020, and voters who say they will vote again in 2024.

As we will talk about below, Trump’s lead is a polling mirage.