The Trump Midterm Election Rigging Scheme Is Dead As Latinos Abandon Republicans

The Trump midterm election rigging scheme was centered around the idea that the gains that Republicans made with Latino voters in 2024 would carry over to 2026, but the opposite has happened.

Political parties in power tend to think they can maintain power by keeping the same voting coalition and gains that helped them win the previous election. When it comes to midterm elections, this is usually deeply flawed thinking, as electorates and elections are dynamic and change in each cycle.

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Donald Trump thought that he could rig the midterm election by triggering a gerrymandering war where Republicans would redraw congressional districts based on the 2024 election results.

There were two groups of voters that Republicans thought they could keep with them to rig the midterm election.

According to Pew Research, Latino voters made a big move toward Trump and the Republican Party:

Nearly half of Hispanic voters backed Trump. His support among Hispanic voters was 12 points higher than in 2020 (48% in 2024, 36% in 2020). And the share voting for the Democratic candidate fell from 61% to 51%.

In 2024, Hispanic women and Hispanic men were divided in their preferences for president. In 2020, Hispanic women were more likely than Hispanic men to vote for the Democratic candidate.

Again, these changes were primarily driven by changing turnout patterns: 9% of eligible Hispanic voters voted in 2020 but not in 2024, and these voters favored Biden in 2020 by roughly two-to-one (69% to 31%). By contrast, among Hispanic eligible voters who voted in 2024 but not in 2020, 60% voted for Trump in 2024 and 37% voted for Harris.

Republicans in Texas and Florida redrew their maps with a perceived Latino voter shift in mind. Latino voters have shifted, but not in the way that Republicans thought.