Both Democrats and Republicans expect Democrats to win back the House majority in November. The real surprise in the House would be if Republicans managed to hold on to their majority.
However, the Senate map never looked friendly to a possible Democratic takeover. In fact, as 2026 began, Senate Republicans were talking about expanding their majority and asking themselves which Democratic seats they could win.
The original Republican plan was to keep the seat in North Carolina and flip Democratic held seats in Georgia and Michigan.
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As Trump has made economic conditions worse in the country, he has caused the electoral landscape to completely implode for the Republican Party.
How bad has it gotten?
Republicans now worry they could lose Senate seats in the very red Midwest. Republican seats are in jeopardy, potentially in Nebraska, Kansas, and Mississippi, to go along with legitimately endangered Republican held seats in red states like Ohio and Iowa.
The number of Republicans that are at risk of going Democratic includes Texas, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio. Democrats need to pick up four seats, and they have at least six plausible targets.
The math is rough and getting worse.
Even Senate Majority Leader Thune admitted that a Democratic Senate takeover is possible.
