Looming Economic Trap for Republicans as Trump's 'Tax Cuts' Have No Cut for Most People

Brendan Buck, who helped pass the first Trump tax cuts, is concerned that the Trump economy is creating an economic trap for Republicans that will make it very hard to hold on to power.

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Brendan Buck, a former top aide to Republican Speakers McCarthy, Ryan, and Boehner, thinks Republicans are in a “developing economic trap.”

“After more than 100 days of President Trump marked by overreach and economic self-immolation, congressional Republicans need a reset to save their political fortunes,” he warns in a New York Times opinion piece.

Extending the tax cuts isn’t going to help them, he posits.

“With the economy teetering from the president’s foolhardy use of tariffs, the administration has said extending the law is an urgent imperative that will calm markets and provide an economic boost.”

The big issue, as he sees it — and he makes a great point — is that Trump is selling the tax cuts as helpful for everybody, but there is NO CUT AT ALL FOR MOST PEOPLE (my bold):

Many Republicans are hoping that the tax bill can blunt the economic damage caused by the Trump tariffs, but that is highly unlikely. The way Mr. Trump in particular is talking about the legislative package is doing them no favors. He and Republican leaders have sold the extension of the tax law as tax cuts “for everybody.” It will be “the biggest bill in the history of our country, in terms of tax cuts and regulation cuts and other things,” Mr. Trump said last month. But the reality is it’s no cut at all for most people. The rates they are preserving have been in place for more than seven years now.

Buck disagrees with Trump that the “too big to fail” bill that aims to cut Medicaid while primarily focused on extending the tax cuts for the wealthy will calm the “teetering” economy, and tells Republican leaders that they should not “talk themselves into believing that this bill will deliver Republicans from the effects of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.”

Buck further said he doesn’t see Republicans doing anything to reclaim tariff power so long as they need Trump for their tax cuts.

He wrote on X that this will make it hard for Republicans to hold on to power.

“I get asked all the time when leaders might step and doing something about the tariffs. The immediate answer is not as long as they need the president to help pass this tax bill. All of it adds up to tough sledding for Republicans to hold onto power.”

Buck helped pass the first round of Trump’s tax cuts, which primarily benefited the wealthy, so he’s not anti-tax cuts. He’s apparently a conservative Republican. In fact, he argues that the tax cuts should be extended. His concern is that Trump is misleading the public that they will get a tax cut, when in fact most people will not get a tax cut.

He thinks Republicans are setting an economic trap for themselves if they act as if extending the tax cuts for the wealthy will fix the economic mess he sees coming from Trump’s tariff policies (fluid and disjointed as they are).

It is a political and messaging issue for him. And he’s not wrong. “Without a stable economic footing to run on, House members in battleground districts face a perilous path to re-election.”

We discussed Republicans’ perilous path to re-election a bit in our Substack live.

“I am proud of the TCJA, helped pass it in 2017, and believe it’s essential to extend it and avoid huge tax hikes. At the same time, that’s no match for the economic mess the president is causing with his trade policy,” he wrote on X above his column.

In case anyone is trying to convince themselves that Buck is a raging liberal, his bio in part is worth a read: “He was counselor to House Speaker Paul Ryan, leading messaging and communications strategy for the speaker and the broader House Republican leadership team.

…

Prior to that, Brendan was press secretary to House Speaker John Boehner. Under Speaker Boehner, Brendan worked extensively with the White House press corps to shape the coverage of the Obama administration. Brendan was also on the 2012 Romney-Ryan presidential campaign, serving as press secretary to the Vice President nominee. He’s held several other senior communications roles on Capitol Hill, including for later-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Rep. Tom Price.”

I’d really be interested to learn what shaping the White House press corps coverage of President Obama entailed.

But to the point at hand, Buck has revealed the big lie at the heart of the Republican agenda: extending the tax cuts will not help “everybody.”

The danger for Republicans is apparent to anyone with a pulse, except Republicans themselves, it seems. They have allowed themselves to be bamboozled and used by the great charlatan, the previously charismatic, wannabe strongman in the White House who is an expert at two things: Selling a mirage of faux-gold dreams as cover for naked self-dealing and corruption and ruining those who help him sell it.

What do you think about the trap that Republicans have set for themselves? Share your thoughts in the comments below.