'LANDSLIDE': Democrats Overperform in Special Elections

In what was described by multiple outlets as a “landslide” victory, 24-year-old Democrat Keishan Scott will be the newest legislator in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

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In what was described by multiple outlets as a “landslide” victory, 24-year-old Democrat Keishan Scott will be the newest legislator in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

Winning almost 71% of less than 3,700 votes cast in a special election, according to unofficial results from the state Election Commission as of Wednesday morning, Scott beat his opponent, Sumter County Republican chair Bill Oden.

The South Carolina Daily Gazette and Newsweek both referred to this as a “landslide” win.

While this seat was Democratic already, it was a “must win” for Democrats given Republicans’ supermajority in the statehouse since 2022, according to U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn.

The overperforming —to perform significantly better than expected or required — continued in Maryland.

In Maryland, Democrat Aisha Braveboy declared victory in Tuesday’s special election for Prince George’s County executive “after amassing over 89% of the unofficial vote over Republican Jonathan White.”

While the county Board of Elections hasn’t officially called the race, Braveboy’s margin is also described as a landslide, although an expected win for Democrats.

The overperformance of Democrats comes at a time when their polling is abysmal.

Special Election Victories Are Not One-Offs

In April, an NBC analysis showed that Democrats had bettered their margin of victory of defeat in 16 special state legislative and congressional elections held so far this year.

They noted then, “Some Democratic officials are cautious about whether the special elections signal true gains in their standing, as opposed to a turnout advantage in low-turnout races.”

These landslide victories continue to tell a story of overperforming at the ballot box, while still polling badly. Democrats have been polling horribly since Trump’s 2024 win. But the question is WHY.

What The Polling Reveals

In March, NBC reported the Democratic Party hit a new polling low and the Democratic base wanted the party to fight Trump harder. “Unlike in Trump’s first term, Democratic voters say 2-to-1 they want party leaders to fight rather than compromise, even at the risk of not getting things done, per the NBC News poll.”

If we recall, at that time Senate Democrats were making nice with Trump and the Democratic Party was pulling its tired, failed “when they go low, we go high” civility politics play while Trump sent people without due process to a prison in El Salvador.