Is The Election Really That Close?
A popular pundit narrative is that this is one of the closest elections in history, but is the election that close or are people afraid to make a prediction?
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Paralyzed By Polls
While I was doing my morning reading roundup of election coverage, I kept running across the same statement. The election is so close. Some outlets are turning up the hyperbole and suggesting that this is the closest election in history, but as early voting data and get out the vote information is coming in, it is fair to ask is this election really that close?
This election has exposed a problem with American political election coverage. The pundit class and the big media outlets view the entire election through the prism of polling. Without polling providing them clear direction on the state of the race, the media doesn’t seem to know what to do, so they have adopted their favorite narrative angle of drama.
I am not going to dispute that the election is close according to the polling. It is, but more goes into winning elections than polls.
We can get a sense of where things might be going with some of the early voting data that is coming in. Records in places like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were smashed when early/mail-in voting started. This suggested great potential for a high turnout election.
A high turnout election benefits Kamala Harris.
Trump has built his entire campaign around the theory that he was going to replay the 2016 election, but this time with Joe Biden standing in for Hillary Clinton.
Do you what?
It almost worked.
Important Democratic constituencies were not as engaged when Biden was running. Trump was doing his usual thing of trying to make the election all about his opponent, and just like in 2016, he was getting a big assist from corporate media.
Then Biden had his bad debate performance and things snowballed.
The problem for Trump is that he never changed his strategy after Harris got in the race. Trump still needs a low turnout election, and the data suggests that turnout could be closer to 2020 than 2016, and that is bad news for the ex-president.
In The Closing Days, This Election Will Break For One Candidate
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