How MAGA is Coping with Trump’s Epic Failure in Real Life
We’ve gone out in the wild in a 69% Trump district to get a feel for how Trump voters are coping with his epic failures in real life and their responses surprised us.
We’ve gone out in the wild in a 69% Trump district to get a feel for how Trump voters are coping with his epic failures in real life and their responses surprised us.
No, this isn’t the same as a coastal elite legacy media organization flying in for a day to embiggen “real Americans” found at a diner in Trumpland. We are not romanticizing MAGA voters as more virtuous and worthy of being heard than other voters in an effort to avoid addressing structural inequalities.
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Recent polls show Trump’s support cratering, with polls mentioning respondents not being happy with his handling of the country’s ongoing issues, his job performance during the war with Iran and his feud with Pope Leo, and the rising costs of gas, so we went out in the wild to see if Trump supporters on the ground are talking about these issues and how they’re coping with the increasingly negative response to their leader.
Polls tell us how many, but they don’t always explain why. Talking to voters in-person, authentically, and without the structured, quantitative limitations of polling, gives us qualitative research into the whys.
It’s important to note that already in the past year, a significant portion of political memorabilia dedicated to Trump has been taken down from homes and businesses that have loudly shared their support for him over the last ten years. There are still huge signs on businesses and homes, but a lot of them have also quietly disappeared.
MAGA Erosion and Why
We observed a marked difference in issues raised by MAGA supporters based on their age, with older supporters focusing on the cost of gas, groceries and healthcare.
Hardcore older MAGA in rural Pennsylvania are grousing about Trump not doing his job, complaining “He isn’t doing his job” on fixing gas prices and the cost of living (groceries, healthcare – there were a lot of complaints about insurance company “rackets”) and that these issues are even worse now. Some of these people are deeply religious and these complaints did come up after the Pope feud and the AI Jesus, but they didn’t mention those events specifically in their complaints. These people seemed broadly miserable with Trump’s behavior, but I’m betting they will still show up at the polls to vote for Republican enablers when hijacked by a culture war issue.
Several middle aged MAGA did bring up the AI Jesus “blasphemy” and what they see as Trump’s offensive behavior toward the Pope. They seemed unhappy about it enough to bring it up, but bearing in mind the cult-like nature of his supporters, it probably won’t impact but a few of them in terms of voting. Knowing how indoctrinated the MAGA base is, we can’t see them ever voting for a Democrat, so the most likely outcome of their dissatisfaction is they stay home during the midterms. Still, this fissure seems irreversible for some.
Younger Trump voters seem to be where there is more movement. They expressed disgust at his behavior and a moral superiority to him in general. Much of this “disgust” was centered on his failed “no wars” promises, including funding Israel’s “war crimes” in Gaza. The war in Iran seems to have pushed them over the edge. There is a fluidity in this segment of Trump’s base in terms of party identity.
It’s possible that some of these voters could cross over if they are incentivized enough with the right kind of candidate, which would not be a typical Democratic Party center-right bland candidate, but someone who is vocal about being willing to fight for the people and against entrenched establishment priorities and special interests. In rural areas like this, that position would be an easier sell coming from a white man (and if he’s a veteran all the better to appeal to some of the older voters), but the main takeaway here is the era of party politics as usual is over for this generation. They are not impressed.
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