History Shows Why Biden And Democrats Can Be Optimistic After First Debate

The first presidential debate inspired panic among some Democrats, but history shows that all incumbent presidents struggle in the first debate, but most go on to win reelection.

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Biden Causes Some Democrats To Freak Out After His Debate Performance

Let’s be honest. The first presidential debate got off to a rough start for the incumbent president. I didn’t see that one coming. Biden’s recent appearances for months had all been strong. He had been campaigning and giving speeches at home and abroad. There was nothing to suggest the sort of slow start President Biden got off to at the debate.

The good news was that when Trump lied about Democrats and abortion, it sparked anger in Biden, and once the anger got him going, the President got stronger for the rest of the debate.

In contrast, Trump seemed to come into the debate with about 20 minutes worth of material and became less lucid as the evening continued.

But those first 15-20 minutes were bad for Biden, and they triggered a freakout in some Democratic circles. We all probably should have seen President Biden’s slow start coming because that’s just what happens to incumbent presidents at the first debate.

Incumbent presidents, for whatever reason, tend to underperform or bomb their first debates.

It happened to Ronald Reagan against Walter Mondale in 1984. It happened to George H.W. Bush in 1992. It happened to Bill Clinton in 1996. It happened to George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012. Most recently, it happened to Donald Trump in 2020.

Why does it happen to incumbent presidents?

No one is exactly sure, but it seems to involve the dual responsibilities of being president and presidential candidate.

It might have been easier for Biden’s supporters if they had known going into the debate that their candidate had been dealing with a cold that affected his voice, but that doesn’t explain why Biden seemed so uninterested early in the debate.

Rachel Maddow ran through the history of the incumbent president first debate curse:

Should people panic over the first debate? Probably not. History shows that incumbent presidents tend to bounce back, as we will discuss below.