Felony Conviction Has Turned Into A Big Problem For Trump
Some real data is in about how voters feel about Trump's felony conviction and it reveals a big problem for the ex-president and his party.
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How Voters Feel About Trump’s Felony Conviction
For months the media has been parroting a talking point that was coming from Trump and his party that a Manhattan felony conviction for the ex-president would not matter. Media types and pundits have pointed to Trump’s numbers with members of his own party as if to say, “See. A felony conviction doesn’t hurt Trump.”
On Monday, I heard one of the top analysts on CNN claim that Trump’s felony conviction was already “baked in” to the voter perception of Trump, so it didn’t matter and wouldn’t move the needle.
However, Politico Magazine/Ipsos conducted a poll that didn’t ask a bunch of general questions but specifically asked voters how the felony conventions impacted their votes. What they found was some bad news for Trump.
Among the most notable findings in our poll: 21 percent of independents said the conviction made them less likely to support Trump and that it would be an important factor in their vote. In a close election, small shifts among independent and swing voters could determine the outcome.
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A plurality of respondents in our poll (38 percent) reported that Trump’s conviction would have no impact on their likelihood to support Trump for president, but the results were decidedly lopsided among those who said it would affect their support. Thirty-three percent of respondents said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump, while only 17 percent of respondents said that it made them more likely to support Trump.
The results were worse for Trump among respondents who said they were political independents. Thirty-two percent of them said that the conviction made them less likely to support Trump. Only 12 percent of them said that it made them more likely to support Trump.
The most damning finding of all was that 21% of Independents said that Trump being convicted of a felony was an important determining factor in their vote. Meaning that Trump’s positions don’t matter as much to these voters as his felony conviction.
To put these numbers into plain English, nearly a third of Independents say they are less likely to support Trump, and for 21% of them, Trump’s felony conviction is a determining factor in their decision on who they will vote for.
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