FAFO: GOP Could Lose 6 Seats after Their Texas Gerrymandering
"GOP could lose 6 seats (including 2 of their own!) they thought they gerrymandered Dems out of if Latinos swing 15% left" as they have done in recent elections.
“GOP could lose 6 seats (including 2 of their own!) they thought they gerrymandered Dems out of if Latinos swing 15% left,” Beshear Stan wrote on X.
Republicans banked their 2026 hopes on redistricting, starting in Texas, where they hung their hopes on the Latino community to such an extent that their support is key. But after Trump’s violent immigration raids across the country, data shows a 10-15% Latino crossover in districts across Texas, California, Colorado, Florida and more.
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“This study was buried in the POLITICO story. GOP could lose 6 seats (including 2 of their own!) they thought they gerrymandered Dems out of if Latinos swing 15% left,” Beshear Stan wrote over the POLITICO story.
The research linked to shows that most of the newly gerrymandered Republican districts, reshaped at Trump’s demand because he fears he and his party can’t win fairly on issues, “exceed 50% Hispanic CVAP. In such districts, the Latino vote share is not marginal but determinative.”
Threatening Gains of Their Trump-Ordered Gerrymandering
Research from the American Business Immigration Coalition and Comité de 100, obtained by POLITICO, shows 10-15% Latino crossover, consistent with what recent special elections have produced, “reshapes the competitive landscape in more than two dozen districts across Texas, California, Colorado, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania, flipping Republican-held seats, fortifying vulnerable Democratic incumbents, and erasing the gains the GOP sought through redistricting.”
For Texas, they found “each district’s partisan score dramatically shifts toward Democrats” due to the Latino CVAP (Citizen Voting-Age Population).
Some warn against extrapolating special election data to general elections, but they accounted for a 10% lag in general election turnout by the Latino community as well.
FAFO in Data
How it started:
How it’s going:
They conclude “redistricting strategies built on static Latino support are now highly vulnerable. Small shifts in Latino voter behavior can upend partisan control.”
So that’s a possible big L for Republicans, a FAFO moment for relying on their ability to distract key voting constituencies with fear-mongering and flat out lies about certain issues. It can also be seen as accountability for their violent, murderous rampages across the country.
