The reality of the 2026 House midterm election is that Democrats will pick up enough seats in California and Utah to win the House majority even if Republicans could hold all of their other seats across the country.
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Democrats are going to win big in California because Gov. Gavin Newsom did a better job than Gov. Greg Abbott did with the mid-decade map redrawing, which should be outlawed in the future.
Democrats are going to pick up a seat in Utah after a court order that a district be drawn in the blue Salt Lake City area.
Even if everything went right for House Republicans on Election Day, they would still lose the majority.
The problem for Republicans is that things have gone very, very wrong.
One of the tells that Republicans are going to lose the House is where they are putting their money. The GOP is plowing money into red state Senate races to try to save its Senate majority.
There has been zero talk about any sort of effort to do the same for the House.
The reason for that is that voter anger at Republican House incumbents is so intense that there is nothing that can be done to save those seats.
