The picture for the 2026 midterm election is becoming clearer as the campaign approaches Labor Day. Unlike campaigns of yesteryear, candidates no longer wait until after Labor Day to start general election campaigns. Sprints to November often begin on primary night or as soon as the primary elections are settled.
The storm that has been forming against Republicans has been growing for more than a year. The funnel clouds are beginning to develop. It is only a matter of when touch down occurs and how big this storm will be.
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Republicans have long held a structural advantage in the battle for the Senate due to the number of supposedly safe seats that the party was defending in 2026. Democrats were supposed to struggle to hold seats in Michigan and Georgia, but Sen. Jon Ossoff is on the verge of running away with his reelection bid, and Abdul El-Sayed has opened up an early lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan.
The Senate math is shifting because the Trump presidency has been such a disaster that Republicans running in red states that the president won by double digits less than two years ago are now seeing their races as in play.
A list of Republican-held Senate seats is in danger because of Trump’s failed presidency, and what must be most troubling for Republicans is that two states that Trump won by double digits have seen their Republican held Senate aeats move toward Democrats.
