In 2024, Butler was the location of an assassination attempt that may have won the election for Trump. In 2026, Butler elected its first Democrat to the state House in three decades, and it is the loudest bellwether for what is about to happen to Trump and his party in November.
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Butler County, PA isn’t just some red spot on a political map for me. Butler County is next door to where I grew up in Southwestern Pennsylvania. It is where my parents shopped for groceries and where I went to the mall to hang out as a teenager.
Butler County is heavily Republican. It has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Butler isn’t just one of the most Republican counties in Pennsylvania. It is one of the most Republican counties in the United States.
Pennsylvania’s 12th House District is made up of most of Butler County. Since 2018, no Republican House candidate has gotten less than 58% of the vote until Tuesday night.
Democrat Brandon Dukes defeated Republican Scott Timko 50%-49% in a special election. The two candidates will meet again in the general election with a full two-year term at stake in November.
Timko and other Republicans are brushing off the defeat as a quirky special election result, but Republicans are ignoring the reality that is looking them in the face.
