A Building Wave: Democrats Flip PA Senate Seat Where Trump Won By 15

Could it be another sign of a blue wave rising? Democrats won a state Senate seat in Pennsylvania by flipping a district that Trump won by 15 points in November.

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A 15% Swing Toward Democrats In A Red Pennsylvania District

Fifteen points is a big number. It is an even larger number when taking into account that the current administration has been in office for about two months.

Forget a honeymoon period with Trump. The growing impression from voters is that they want an annulment.

The latest example came in Pennsylvania, where Democrat James Malone defeated Republican Josh Parsons by 482 votes. Yes, the margin appears to be 482 votes, demonstrating the value of showing up and voting in every election.

Conservative activist Scott Presler had been trying to wake up Republicans to the fact that they could lose this race and posted his frustration on X after he was ignored:

Democrats FLIPPED a State Senate seat in Lancaster County, PA..This is a heavily Republican district. Democrats won early voting handily, while Republicans waited to vote on ONE day. Republicans lost by 482 votes. I hope they learn from this.

Presler’s point is more far-reaching because on the same day that Republicans lost a special election in a district that they should have easily won, Trump issued an executive order that tried to take control of elections away from the states and limit voting to one day. The executive order is baseless bluster that will go nowhere, but it shows that Trump continues to take his party in a direction that will cost them elections.

There were already signs of weakness for Republicans in the district going back to November. Republicans have a 23-point voter registration advantage in PA-36, but Trump only beat Harris by 15.

Malone won by focusing on some local issues like property tax relief, helping first-time homebuyers, and increasing housing.

He also ran on supporting public education while Trump is trying to dismantle education, but the big issue was that he, like other Democrats in special elections, ran on lowering costs for everyone.

As we will discuss below, personal economic issues will play a significant factor in 2026.

The Two Engines Of A Potential Blue Wave

The simple surface explanation for the rough outlines of what could be taking shape for next year will be that Trump and Republicans are doing a bunch of unpopular things, and voters may opt to put a check on their power by electing Democrats in their districts and states, and that may very well end up being true, but to count on Trump backlash alone to power Democrats to victory would be a foolish and often repeated mistake.